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Francesco Orsi's avatar

Oliver, superb retrospective. One area I think deserves more attention in 2026: the mathematical infrastructure underneath AI governance.

Most governance frameworks today, including for high-risk AI under the EU AI Act, still rely on periodic assessments and static risk classifications. But if the systems being governed are probabilistic and continuously evolving, the governance itself must become probabilistic and continuous.

I've been exploring this in the context of pharmaceutical auditing, where we face the same challenge: how do you govern a system (a drug manufacturing line, a clinical data pipeline, an AI-powered decision tool) when the underlying risk landscape warps continuously? The answer I'm converging on borrows from differential geometry and Bayesian statistics, treating organizational risk not as a number on a dashboard, but as a shape (a manifold) that deforms over time, and using topological data analysis to detect structural fragility before crises manifest.

The implications for EU AI Act high-risk compliance (August 2026 deadline) are significant: organizations that only do point-in-time conformity assessments will miss exactly the kind of emergent, non-linear risks that the Act was designed to prevent. Continuous Bayesian monitoring may become a regulatory expectation.

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